Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 05 2021 | 9464 | 42460 | 302 | 80 | 464 | 607 |
| January 06 2021 | 9548 | 42602 | 306 | 80 | 484 | 640 |
| January 07 2021 | 9630 | 42738 | 306 | 83 | 541 | 655 |
| January 08 2021 | 9682 | 42852 | 308 | 84 | 564 | 682 |
| January 09 2021 | 9720 | 43060 | 308 | 87 | 538 | 720 |
| January 10 2021 | 9789 | 43265 | 310 | 87 | 530 | 725 |
| January 11 2021 | 9809 | 43387 | 311 | 87 | 514 | 720 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 4.1 | 7.6% | 39 | 0.34% | 57 | 0.5% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 6.4 | 10.3% | 53 | 0.39% | 65 | 0.48% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 14.7 | 27.2% | 140 | 0.67% | 175 | 0.84% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 6.7 | 14% | 72 | 0.53% | 113 | 0.83% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 5.6 | 8.9% | 46 | 0.44% | 72 | 0.69% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 7.7 | 13.2% | 68 | 0.54% | 101 | 0.8% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 5.3 | 9.7% | 50 | 0.43% | 71 | 0.62% |
| 70+ | 2 | 4.0 | 8.9% | 46 | 0.44% | 66 | 0.63% |
| All ages | 20 | 54.6 | 100% | 514 | 0.49% | 720 | 0.69% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 05 2021 | 6015 | 25275 | 178 | 67 | 282 | 349 |
| January 06 2021 | 6067 | 25352 | 179 | 67 | 282 | 377 |
| January 07 2021 | 6093 | 25432 | 179 | 67 | 296 | 366 |
| January 08 2021 | 6176 | 25499 | 179 | 67 | 362 | 448 |
| January 09 2021 | 6227 | 25555 | 181 | 70 | 388 | 494 |
| January 10 2021 | 6264 | 25622 | 181 | 70 | 362 | 479 |
| January 11 2021 | 6295 | 25658 | 182 | 70 | 372 | 498 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 2.6 | 7% | 26 | 0.34% | 32 | 0.41% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 4.3 | 9.9% | 37 | 0.44% | 57 | 0.68% |
| 20-29 | 5 | 7.7 | 18.5% | 69 | 0.97% | 81 | 1.14% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 6.3 | 13.4% | 50 | 0.59% | 65 | 0.77% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 6.1 | 13.2% | 49 | 0.63% | 72 | 0.93% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 5.7 | 14.5% | 54 | 0.56% | 72 | 0.74% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 5.3 | 12.4% | 46 | 0.55% | 66 | 0.79% |
| 70+ | 3 | 3.6 | 11% | 41 | 0.58% | 53 | 0.75% |
| All ages | 31 | 41.6 | 100% | 372 | 0.58% | 498 | 0.77% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 05 2021 | 4567 | 16901 | 192 | 57 | 201 | 275 |
| January 06 2021 | 4585 | 16970 | 194 | 58 | 192 | 277 |
| January 07 2021 | 4629 | 17012 | 195 | 58 | 231 | 287 |
| January 08 2021 | 4679 | 17092 | 196 | 58 | 275 | 313 |
| January 09 2021 | 4705 | 17124 | 197 | 58 | 270 | 339 |
| January 10 2021 | 4724 | 17167 | 197 | 58 | 252 | 331 |
| January 11 2021 | 4737 | 17185 | 197 | 58 | 230 | 339 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.7 | 6.5% | 15 | 0.28% | 21 | 0.39% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 2.9 | 9.6% | 22 | 0.41% | 45 | 0.83% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 3.6 | 13% | 30 | 0.66% | 46 | 1.02% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 3.4 | 13.5% | 31 | 0.57% | 51 | 0.94% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 4.6 | 16.1% | 37 | 0.74% | 49 | 0.98% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 3.7 | 17.4% | 40 | 0.59% | 50 | 0.74% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 3.4 | 11.7% | 27 | 0.43% | 40 | 0.63% |
| 70+ | 3 | 3.6 | 12.2% | 28 | 0.44% | 37 | 0.58% |
| All ages | 13 | 26.9 | 100% | 230 | 0.51% | 339 | 0.75% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 05 2021 | 10386 | 45824 | 243 | 59 | 611 | 739 |
| January 06 2021 | 10482 | 45984 | 252 | 61 | 651 | 760 |
| January 07 2021 | 10545 | 46117 | 255 | 63 | 678 | 771 |
| January 08 2021 | 10593 | 46291 | 256 | 63 | 684 | 818 |
| January 09 2021 | 10691 | 46395 | 260 | 63 | 697 | 916 |
| January 10 2021 | 10717 | 46480 | 262 | 63 | 592 | 886 |
| January 11 2021 | 10775 | 46568 | 263 | 63 | 617 | 908 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 3.1 | 5.3% | 33 | 0.28% | 50 | 0.42% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 7.3 | 10.9% | 67 | 0.4% | 102 | 0.62% |
| 20-29 | 16 | 15.0 | 22.2% | 137 | 0.64% | 204 | 0.96% |
| 30-39 | 13 | 11.7 | 16% | 99 | 0.73% | 149 | 1.1% |
| 40-49 | 13 | 9.1 | 14.3% | 88 | 0.65% | 135 | 0.99% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 7.6 | 11.5% | 71 | 0.5% | 95 | 0.67% |
| 60-69 | 8 | 6.7 | 9.4% | 58 | 0.41% | 88 | 0.62% |
| 70+ | 0 | 6.3 | 10.4% | 64 | 0.49% | 85 | 0.65% |
| All ages | 58 | 66.9 | 100% | 617 | 0.52% | 908 | 0.77% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 05 2021 | 34142 | 296167 | 1037 | 190 | 1767 | 2275 |
| January 06 2021 | 34337 | 296458 | 1046 | 190 | 1782 | 2332 |
| January 07 2021 | 34723 | 297069 | 1042 | 203 | 2002 | 2510 |
| January 08 2021 | 35008 | 297654 | 1047 | 203 | 2218 | 2634 |
| January 09 2021 | 35189 | 298198 | 1052 | 211 | 2233 | 2814 |
| January 10 2021 | 35391 | 298787 | 1055 | 211 | 2078 | 2836 |
| January 11 2021 | 35526 | 299345 | 1058 | 211 | 1987 | 2805 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 8 | 11.3 | 5.3% | 105 | 0.17% | 148 | 0.25% |
| 10-19 | 18 | 27.4 | 12.4% | 247 | 0.35% | 324 | 0.46% |
| 20-29 | 28 | 60.3 | 26.2% | 521 | 0.5% | 714 | 0.69% |
| 30-39 | 27 | 35.6 | 17% | 337 | 0.44% | 510 | 0.67% |
| 40-49 | 12 | 33.1 | 15% | 299 | 0.46% | 413 | 0.63% |
| 50-59 | 25 | 25.9 | 12.3% | 244 | 0.37% | 352 | 0.54% |
| 60-69 | 11 | 13.3 | 6.6% | 131 | 0.24% | 197 | 0.36% |
| 70+ | 6 | 9.3 | 5.2% | 103 | 0.21% | 147 | 0.3% |
| All ages | 135 | 216.1 | 100% | 1987 | 0.36% | 2805 | 0.51% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 05 2021 | 491341 | 2370485 | 21796 | 4979 | 22810 | 30326 |
| January 06 2021 | 494747 | 2377053 | 21971 | 5039 | 23929 | 31153 |
| January 07 2021 | 498538 | 2383410 | 22070 | 5079 | 26385 | 32145 |
| January 08 2021 | 502012 | 2390538 | 22206 | 5119 | 27475 | 34113 |
| January 09 2021 | 505058 | 2396106 | 22326 | 5155 | 27766 | 36527 |
| January 10 2021 | 506890 | 2401736 | 22378 | 5157 | 25788 | 36072 |
| January 11 2021 | 508346 | 2405734 | 22434 | 5162 | 25339 | 36193 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 86 | 148.0 | 5.4% | 1359 | 0.21% | 1855 | 0.29% |
| 10-19 | 156 | 352.7 | 12.1% | 3064 | 0.4% | 4271 | 0.56% |
| 20-29 | 256 | 515.7 | 17.5% | 4425 | 0.58% | 6270 | 0.83% |
| 30-39 | 222 | 453.7 | 15.6% | 3946 | 0.52% | 5696 | 0.75% |
| 40-49 | 193 | 417.6 | 14.1% | 3573 | 0.51% | 5120 | 0.73% |
| 50-59 | 248 | 438.9 | 14.8% | 3741 | 0.46% | 5399 | 0.66% |
| 60-69 | 163 | 312.6 | 10.8% | 2736 | 0.36% | 3956 | 0.52% |
| 70+ | 132 | 276.3 | 9.8% | 2495 | 0.39% | 3626 | 0.57% |
| All ages | 1456 | 2915.4 | 100% | 25339 | 0.44% | 36193 | 0.62% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68.8 | 47.8 | 83.6 | 54.6 | 40.6 | 26.7% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 41.6 | 25 | 40.2% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74.9 | 26.9 | 18.6 | 36.6% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76.8 | 61.6 | 95.9 | 66.9 | 50.1 | 34.8% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51.3 | 45.6 | 68.7 | 216.1 | 157.1 | 30.7% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62.2 | 56.4 | 82.8 | 2915.4 | 2101.3 | 33.8% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 2 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.59 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-02-01 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 4547"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges